Michael —

Good question. IMO the effect would most closely resemble a refundable lump-sum tax rebate, except that it would happen every month, not just once. Traditional theory (permanent income hypothesis) says making in permanent would have a larger stimulus than a one time rebate. So I would start from there. But remember, you have to deduct any programs that are replaced by the UBI, e.g. TANF, mortgage interest deduction, etc.

Economist, Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center, Yale Ph.D. Interests include environment, health care policy, social safety net, economic freedom.

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