Michael —

Good question. IMO the effect would most closely resemble a refundable lump-sum tax rebate, except that it would happen every month, not just once. Traditional theory (permanent income hypothesis) says making in permanent would have a larger stimulus than a one time rebate. So I would start from there. But remember, you have to deduct any programs that are replaced by the UBI, e.g. TANF, mortgage interest deduction, etc.

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Economist, Senior Fellow at Niskanen Center, Yale Ph.D. Interests include environment, health care policy, social safety net, economic freedom.

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