Jim — Yes, you have a good point. Read the whole paper by Cronin et al. cited in my post. What you say is central to their paper — there would be winners and losers even if statistically there were full compensation for the mean household.
As for Elon Musk, yes, I suppose he would be a winner, since his cars do less than GM’s to choke us on poisonous gasses. I have no problem if those who pollute least end up the winners and those who pollute most end up the losers. In fact, that is the whole point of a carbon tax in the first place.